Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2015 9:40:12 GMT -8
With every team having played 7-10 games, it's time to rush to panic judgments. Really I'd be interested to see what people think of what they've seen so far, because I know all of us have been watching different teams. So first I'll give my thoughts on teams I've found myself watching consistently, then a few general observations.
Teams I've seen:
Arizona Coyotes - Such a different feel. The value of the rookies cant be overlooked. Tobias Rieder has been a force and showed a complete game. All the attention has been heaped on Duclair/Domi, who are humming with Duclair already posting a hat trick and Domi averaging over a point per. Domi seems to create 2-3 breakaways per game out of nothing. Getting Martin Hanzal healthy was like signing a top six forward and it shows. This team feels completely different than last year. They say you cant coach speed, and while I believe in Dave Tippett, rough estimate is that 60% of the team's improvement is from the skill additions of the baby Yotes and Hanzal. While playing the percentages game, I'll give 10% to outside the organization additions. I've gushed about the speed difference, but the Coyotes are noticeably more physical team as well. Part of that is the speed to get to people on the forecheck but Downie and (I never thought I'd say this) Grossman have really changed the culture a little bit. The team went from plucky tough to having some real grit. The other 30% I'll give to Tippett. Arizona has closed on the puck in the neutral zone and near the blueline with great effectiveness, constantly having two or three players pressuring the puck possessor.
Verdict - Not a playoff team even in the garbage Pacific, but they'll play themselves out of Auston Matthews as well barring some good luck at the lottery. Mike Smith is notoriously streaky and was atrocious in the preseason, unable to track pucks at all. He's definitely on a hot streak right now but the team is still bottom five in shots allowed and a negative possession team without the depth of skill to compensate. Yet.
Winnipeg Jets - I think I've happened upon their games more than anyone else and I have to say I'm impressed. They JUST. KEEP. COMING. It's wave after wave of scoring chances, really both ways. I didn't pick them to make the playoffs and I still dont know but I want to believe. They'd have home ice in the first round if they were a Pacific team. Blake Wheeler is on another level right now. He's a lock all star, which really isn't enough to do justice to how good he's been. Nik Ehlers looks like he's going to steal some ROY votes. I know he was pumped up a bit in this league but he looks every bit the part. Throw in contributions from guys like Matthieu Perreault (7 points in 8 games), Drew Stafford (same) and the forwards look capable of getting 3-4 goals nightly no problem. The question is going to hinge on the defense but Trouba has been solid and Byfuglien has been Byfuglien (I say that from what I've seen they should keep him and shoot for a run). The concern is Pav has been more the 2014 than 2015 vintage. Lots of 5-4 games forthcoming.
Verdict - They deserve a spot. I reallllllly would not want to play this team in the whiteout the way the offense is clicking.
Washington Capitals - Scary, that's all there is to it. It's not the Bruce Boudreau firewagon days, although the 7-4 game in Edmonton kind of felt like it. TJ Oshie looks like the answer to the decade old question of who plays opposite Ovi. Trotz even had the gall to separate Ovi and Backstrom, replacing Nick with Kuznetsov, only to see Backstrom tally seven points in his first four games back and Kuznetsov to be the NHL's first star of the week. Granted, Ovi and Backstrom weren't separated for ALL of that but that should be alarming for the rest of the league. Havent missed Ward, Brouwer, Fehr, or Green nearly as much as anticipated. Hell, John Carlson has 10 points in seven games this season on nearly 24 minutes per game. He's turned into a true stud and if you made a list of the biggest stars in DC, he'd be what 6th? All this with a sub .900 team save percentage (most of which can be chalked up to Grubauer's start).
Verdict - All signs point to a Montreal-Washington conference final.
Loose thoughts:
Columbus has deservedly gotten all the attention as the league's most disappointing team after a historically bad start. Most of us picked them to at least make the playoffs. But my god the Ducks have been wretched. How does a team with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf only have six goals through seven games? Losing Francois Beaucheman doesn't take a team from cup contender to the basement. As a team that wasnt just the popular pick for the Cup, but the majority pick, they really have to be considered even more disappointing than Columbus. No other team has less than 13, so even though the 3.1 shot % is incredibly fluky that's a big cause for concern, although normalized they'd have closer to 20 and we would be looking at them differently.
I dont know if there's a team more polarizing than the Penguins right now. We came into the season thinking they'd have a world beater offense and sieve defense but they're 29th in scoring and T-2nd in goals allowed. They're sitting on a 5.0 shot %, so they're due for a bump and there's spots in the East up for grabs. They should be safe but they have a few things to work out.
How do the Capitals, Bruins, and Blue Jackets all have sub .900 sv %? Tuukka has an .854! You'd be more likely to see the trio of Holtby (.917), Rask (.854), and Bobrovsky (.852) as the Vezina finalists most years, not between the pipes for teams at below AHL sv %.
Lastly, shoutout to Florida Panthers, currently with the 2nd highest PDO in the league and 2nd on HR's SRS behind Montreal.
Teams I've seen:
Arizona Coyotes - Such a different feel. The value of the rookies cant be overlooked. Tobias Rieder has been a force and showed a complete game. All the attention has been heaped on Duclair/Domi, who are humming with Duclair already posting a hat trick and Domi averaging over a point per. Domi seems to create 2-3 breakaways per game out of nothing. Getting Martin Hanzal healthy was like signing a top six forward and it shows. This team feels completely different than last year. They say you cant coach speed, and while I believe in Dave Tippett, rough estimate is that 60% of the team's improvement is from the skill additions of the baby Yotes and Hanzal. While playing the percentages game, I'll give 10% to outside the organization additions. I've gushed about the speed difference, but the Coyotes are noticeably more physical team as well. Part of that is the speed to get to people on the forecheck but Downie and (I never thought I'd say this) Grossman have really changed the culture a little bit. The team went from plucky tough to having some real grit. The other 30% I'll give to Tippett. Arizona has closed on the puck in the neutral zone and near the blueline with great effectiveness, constantly having two or three players pressuring the puck possessor.
Verdict - Not a playoff team even in the garbage Pacific, but they'll play themselves out of Auston Matthews as well barring some good luck at the lottery. Mike Smith is notoriously streaky and was atrocious in the preseason, unable to track pucks at all. He's definitely on a hot streak right now but the team is still bottom five in shots allowed and a negative possession team without the depth of skill to compensate. Yet.
Winnipeg Jets - I think I've happened upon their games more than anyone else and I have to say I'm impressed. They JUST. KEEP. COMING. It's wave after wave of scoring chances, really both ways. I didn't pick them to make the playoffs and I still dont know but I want to believe. They'd have home ice in the first round if they were a Pacific team. Blake Wheeler is on another level right now. He's a lock all star, which really isn't enough to do justice to how good he's been. Nik Ehlers looks like he's going to steal some ROY votes. I know he was pumped up a bit in this league but he looks every bit the part. Throw in contributions from guys like Matthieu Perreault (7 points in 8 games), Drew Stafford (same) and the forwards look capable of getting 3-4 goals nightly no problem. The question is going to hinge on the defense but Trouba has been solid and Byfuglien has been Byfuglien (I say that from what I've seen they should keep him and shoot for a run). The concern is Pav has been more the 2014 than 2015 vintage. Lots of 5-4 games forthcoming.
Verdict - They deserve a spot. I reallllllly would not want to play this team in the whiteout the way the offense is clicking.
Washington Capitals - Scary, that's all there is to it. It's not the Bruce Boudreau firewagon days, although the 7-4 game in Edmonton kind of felt like it. TJ Oshie looks like the answer to the decade old question of who plays opposite Ovi. Trotz even had the gall to separate Ovi and Backstrom, replacing Nick with Kuznetsov, only to see Backstrom tally seven points in his first four games back and Kuznetsov to be the NHL's first star of the week. Granted, Ovi and Backstrom weren't separated for ALL of that but that should be alarming for the rest of the league. Havent missed Ward, Brouwer, Fehr, or Green nearly as much as anticipated. Hell, John Carlson has 10 points in seven games this season on nearly 24 minutes per game. He's turned into a true stud and if you made a list of the biggest stars in DC, he'd be what 6th? All this with a sub .900 team save percentage (most of which can be chalked up to Grubauer's start).
Verdict - All signs point to a Montreal-Washington conference final.
Loose thoughts:
Columbus has deservedly gotten all the attention as the league's most disappointing team after a historically bad start. Most of us picked them to at least make the playoffs. But my god the Ducks have been wretched. How does a team with Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf only have six goals through seven games? Losing Francois Beaucheman doesn't take a team from cup contender to the basement. As a team that wasnt just the popular pick for the Cup, but the majority pick, they really have to be considered even more disappointing than Columbus. No other team has less than 13, so even though the 3.1 shot % is incredibly fluky that's a big cause for concern, although normalized they'd have closer to 20 and we would be looking at them differently.
I dont know if there's a team more polarizing than the Penguins right now. We came into the season thinking they'd have a world beater offense and sieve defense but they're 29th in scoring and T-2nd in goals allowed. They're sitting on a 5.0 shot %, so they're due for a bump and there's spots in the East up for grabs. They should be safe but they have a few things to work out.
How do the Capitals, Bruins, and Blue Jackets all have sub .900 sv %? Tuukka has an .854! You'd be more likely to see the trio of Holtby (.917), Rask (.854), and Bobrovsky (.852) as the Vezina finalists most years, not between the pipes for teams at below AHL sv %.
Lastly, shoutout to Florida Panthers, currently with the 2nd highest PDO in the league and 2nd on HR's SRS behind Montreal.
