Entry Draft Lottery Percentages

Sounds good to me, I do not see a problem with the change.

I'm okay with 1st getting a lower chance at winning, but I don't think 2nd should be as close. What about something like this:

22
15
12
10
9
8
7
6
5
3
2
1

I could do 200 ping pong balls....but that's a lot of ping pong balls and would start getting real expensive.

I'm down for Toronto's percentages as well.

We could just do it like the actual NHL, where iirc they use numbered balls and every combination of numbers belongs to a team, and whichever team's combination is drawn gets first, second, third, etc.

If somebody wants to come up with the combinations for each seed then I'm game to do this with 6 ping pong balls.

But otherwise I'm happy to buy 100 of them and so it that way.

I've put together a list of permutations for 6 numbers (ping pong balls), and come up with a set of 720 unique combinations:

No.   Permutation
1     123456
2     123465
3     123546
4     123564
5     123645
...   ...
716   654132
717   654213
718   654231
719   654312
720   654321

Full set: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G44JVlQA2-KSYRheOZNibebCRi7WHjEATLKj0VPjkoU/

Using the full set of 6 numbers gives us percentages that are fairly close to the originally proposed ones:

No. Range  Count  Odds
1-205      205    28.5%
206-360    155    21.5%
361-479    119    16.5%
480-558    79     11.0%
559-612    54     7.5%
613-644    32     4.4%
645-666    22     3.1%
667-684    18     2.5%
685-698    14     1.9%
699-709    11     1.5%
710-716    7      1.0%
717-720    4      0.6%

As much as I would've loved to see Rob come up with an innovate way of drawing from 100 ping pong balls, I propose we stick with 6, and go with these new odds. We can randomize the numbers that get assigned to teams, or just stick with the sequential ranges - whatever people prefer!

This is great! Let's do this!

We can decide if we randomize randes or not later. For now, this is sweet!

No problem, happy to explain! It's very similar to the way the actual NHL draft lottery is conducted: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LylmmdP9SDI

There are 6 ping pong balls, with the numbers 1-6 on them. These 6 balls can create 720 different uniquely ordered combinations (permutations), which I have listed in the spreadsheet. Each permutation is assigned to a team. The number of permutations each team gets is where to percentages come in; the last placed team gets 205 permutations (28.5% of all of the total 720), second last gets 155, and so on.

The actual lottery involves pulling out the numbers from the basket/hat/bowl/etc, and whichever team has been assigned the 6 digit number that the balls produce (note: the order in which the balls are selected matters), wins the lottery.

Hope that helps clear things!

Edit: we would also do the same thing to determine the 2nd place team. If the 1st place team gets selected again in the 2nd draw, we would simply keep on redoing it until we get a new team.